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Startups Play Drywall Roulette

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Here’s a bad analogy for startups: drywall roulette.

The human head is about a foot wide. The space between studs backing a piece of drywall is about 22 inches wide. If you take a running start and ram your face full speed into a section of drywall you have a one in three chance of not hitting a stud.

When talented people “hack” without thinking clearly about users, I think of drywall roulette players who blindly sprint full throttle into a wall, hoping to get lucky.

After doing this a while myself, I now think the trick to winning is forethought – figuring out where to break through is more important than strength.

Before committing, why not knock on walls to find an opening?

In software, a “knock” is anything that quickly tests a product idea. It’s talking to users, studying competitors, asking experts, running ad copy, and building mockups.

While in school, I’d use class projects to knock on different walls, from digital signatures, to social shopping, to productivity apps. At one point, a venture capital friend stopped asking “how’s it going?” and greeted me with “what are you working on this time?”. It took until my final year before these knocks uncovered the opportunity that led to our company and raising funding from Y Combinator and other helpful folks.

Beyond startups, I think this bad analogy applies to leading organizations – every strategic decision is drywall roulette.

Make a mistake, and you’ll stumble.

Choose wisely, and you’ll walk through walls.

Thanks to David R, Nick S, and Zak H for feedback on early versions of this post. 



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